DSLR's dead in 5 years

[gregj1763]

It's a fast changing world, but I will certainly always have decent camera around
But who know what the definition of decent will be?

http://www.eoshd.com/content/11409/c...s-dead-5-years

[rawill]

Very interesting read.

Not surprising really, the way most consumers view photography is well stated.
Glad I haven't gone upmarket and bought a top end DSLR!

[nimitzbenedicto]

No prob. Most of our dslrs now will last 5 yrs anyway.

Meanwhile, let's just have fun clickin away!

[Mike Buckley]

To review more thoughts about the same article, see this thread.

[NorthernFocus]

If the predictions pan out it will be good for pro photogs. Due to the physics there will always be a clear delineation between photos taken with high end gear and cell phones/ipads. So if the entry level DSLR disappears, there will be fewer good amateur photos flooding the "market".

[gregj1763]

To review more thoughts about the same article, see this thread.

Sorry to double up. Didn't spot that thread until after I posted mine

[rpcrowe]

The DSLR will never replace the Kodak Instamatic

[Andrew76]

If the predictions pan out it will be good for pro photogs. Due to the physics there will always be a clear delineation between photos taken with high end gear and cell phones/ipads. So if the entry level DSLR disappears, there will be fewer good amateur photos flooding the "market".

A friend showed me this article yesterday, or the day before. And my first impression was EXACTLY that.

[Ken MT]

[rawill]

If the predictions pan out it will be good for pro photogs. ... So if the entry level DSLR disappears, there will be fewer good amateur photos flooding the "market".

That means I won't get to put any shots up on here then!~!

[gregj1763]

The day I see a wedding done with a smartphone is when I will worry.
Probably already happened but not by a pro that is charging the happy couple

[LocalHero1953]

So here's something I've been mulling over for a while. Given the rate of technological progress, when will DSLRs be extinct altogether? There has been rapid development in EVFs; digital shutters are moving upmarket also, so mirrorless cameras with liveview are getting faster in use. And when you come to think of it, the concept of a pentaprism and a flapping mirror is so bizarre it just has to be an evolutionary dead end, doesn't it? I give them.....say 10 years, to be generous. Just a thought!

[Glenn NK]

The day I see a wedding done with a smartphone is when I will worry.
Probably already happened but not by a pro that is charging the happy couple

Have a look at this landscape (Banff National Park) done with an i-phone.
http://www.naturescapes.net/forums/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=238333

This is his usual work:
http://www.naturescapes.net/forums/v...p?f=4&t=238262

I'm quite familiar with the photographer - he uses a Nikon D800E for his work.

When posted on the web (where most images are seen), the first one compares favourably considering the equipment being used.

Glenn

[gregj1763]

Yep amazing what you can achieve with phones and a bit of skill. My iPhone 4S has twice the megapixel than my first digital camera 10 years back. Who can tell what 10 years from now will bring.

[Glenn NK]

And when you come to think of it, the concept of a pentaprism and a flapping mirror is so bizarre it just has to be an evolutionary dead end, doesn't it? I give them.....say 10 years, to be generous. Just a thought!

Well some things work well - consider the wheel - anything new coming along to replace it?

Prism/mirror technology was well developed in my first SLR (a used Asahi Pentax I bought in 1962) and it still works well in my 5DII.

http://www.cameraquest.com/pentorig.htm

Glenn

[pnodrog]

The article states that the DSLR market sales had climbed in double digits over the last 10 years and assuming a DSLR lasts at least 6 years the market is not yet being supported by a replacement demand so a levelling off or a bit of a fall cannot be totally unexpected. I upgraded my camera after 7 years and due to the advancements the performance it is now ahead of my lenses so guess what's next on the shopping list. Any DSLR over about 20 mp is going to out perform most kit lenses. So manufacturers may well see an increase in the sale of quality lenses. Once they have a set of quality lenses what will they shop for next? I think the investment in lenses quickly gets to high to switch to an incompatible camera body.

Even on this site we see threads where the advice often been to get a better lens in preference to upgrading the camera.
I suppose it would be a little unfair if the manufactures laid all the blame with CiC.

[ajohnw]

A medium sized camera shop dealer told me that micro 4/3 sales are steadily increasing year on year so they now stock cameras and lenses. In real terms these cameras represent the only significant change in DSLR design for a long long time. As the reflex has gone maybe they should be called DSL's. MirrorLess is a bit of a mouthful. If this trend continues others will have to follow suit as costs are lower - or profits higher of course. Personally with the Nex series I feel that Sony have missed the boat - tiny camera but the lenses are large. It seems they have no interest in the pro / semi pro end anyway. I also wonder about the m 4/3 people. I read that they would rather sell via department stores than camera dealers. I can't help wondering if this is to get at a less discerning public.

A sales person in a larger chain told me that Sony hope to get phase type focusing on the sensor. On the other hand they have solely worked on CMOS sensors for a rather long time now as they had concluded that CCD's had reached the end of the line and were also too expensive. It wouldn't be at all surprising to find that eventually they offer the best quality sensors at the best price and may already do that.

It's fairly well known that camera sales in general are in the doldrums. Having seen the quality of shots some phones can achieve for pc viewing this is hardly surprising. They can also be printed. The technology used to drive them comes from phones too. Ipads are another example of that. Use wise they leave PC's etc standing. They have limitations at the moment but .........

There are also several attempts to drag what might be called the Facebook generation away from their phones - a truly difficult task. They are a group that covers all sorts of ages really too. Offering tagging and uploading etc is one example of that. Some are now walking around using iPads to take shots. I have been surprised what these can do as well. Add some sort of semi HDR exposure facility and they could cope with all sorts of things - easily done. Most shots people take don't have bright objects in them anyway. My impression is that phones are already better than some compacts.

My guess is that in under 5 years most people will be mirrorless or wishing they were and that the cameras will have to offer decent performance levels otherwise people just wont buy them. Some people already realise that the ever increasing pixel counts are a dubious reason for upgrading so the end to that is in sight. Instead companies offer ever increasing bells and whistles. Some are useful some are not. The biggest changes are mainly in the jpg capture area. Some cameras even have inbuilt raw conversion - a really questionable advance but expect more.

John
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[pnodrog]

Yes John I fully expect that in 6-7 years time I will replace my DSLR with an EVIL camera fully compatible with my lenses. I see them more as the logical "advancement" of the DSLR rather than a collapse of the market. A bit like cars moving from manual to automatic did not mean the demand shifted to trucks or motorcycles. Same market segment and mostly the same manufacturers just a different technology.

[barrydoig]

That may be true, but I will continue with my Nikon D200 (2006 vintage) because I will not be pressured by the industry to buy the latest model that I can't afford just to 'keep up with the Joneses'. It's not the camera that creates photographs, it's what goes on six inches behind it.
Barry

[Colin Southern]

That may be true, but I will continue with my Nikon D200 (2006 vintage) because I will not be pressured by the industry to buy the latest model that I can't afford just to 'keep up with the Joneses'. It's not the camera that creates photographs, it's what goes on six inches behind it.
Barry

Hello Barry - that's twice I've seen your name in the past week (the other being in the paper with regards to the Wahine chains).

Hope you're doing well.